| Most people have no real understanding of the impact | | | | discovered the soaring claims being paid out by AIG |
| of the American Insurance Group or AIG on the | | | | for their credit default swaps insurance policies. AIG |
| mortgage market and the global banking system and | | | | was able to raise capital $11billion only once from the |
| how close we came to Financial Armageddon. All of a | | | | market to repair the damage, but the claims kept |
| sudden the dominoes started to fall and the Federal | | | | growing. The Largest Insurance Company in the world |
| Reserve Bank of America started to pick and choose | | | | was effectively bankrupt. |
| who they would save. Lehman Brothers, the | | | | The domino effect had started, the first to fall was |
| investment company posted losses of $3.9billion | | | | Lehman Brothers they were reported to be the |
| before they filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection | | | | biggest bankruptcy in history. Merrill Lynch was bought |
| and then collapsed. Merrill Lynch was bought by the | | | | by the Bank of America. The Federal Reserve Bank |
| Bank of America for $50billion. | | | | stepped into help AIG. AIG's problems could still cause |
| The Federal Reserve Bank of America stepped in and | | | | further turmoil in the market for the debt insurance |
| agreed to lend AIG $85 billion in order to facilitate the | | | | contracts. That market was considered to be worth |
| sale of its global assets estimated at over $1 trillion in | | | | $58 trillion worldwide at the end of 2007. The biggest |
| exchange for essentially all the company's equity. The | | | | problem is that nobody really knows how much of the |
| Federal Reserve Bank is currently lending AIG the | | | | $58 trillion AIG is responsible for? Frightening! |
| money while they sell off their assets to pay their | | | | There is still more to emerge and this is possible only |
| liabilities for all the Credit Default Swaps that they | | | | the tip of the iceberg. We have had Freddie Mac, |
| insured. AIG are paying the Federal Reserve Bank | | | | Fannie Mae, the American car manufacturers, I-Save |
| 8.5% above the 3-month Libor rate, currently 11.5% and | | | | the Icelandic bank, Royal Bank of Scotland, Lloyds |
| they currently own 79.9% of AIG. | | | | TSB, HBOS and others. These are the big and the |
| An AIG bankruptcy would have been the worst | | | | great, what about all the smaller banks and companies |
| financial collapse in history if it had been allowed. So | | | | around that are now trying to struggle on in the current |
| what had happened and why did the Federal Reserve | | | | circumstances |
| Bank stepped in? Most of us thought it was saved by | | | | The consequences of AIG's |
| the Federal Reserve Bank because AIG was the | | | | The mortgage bubble would never have grown so |
| largest Insurance Company in the world with 74 million | | | | large had it not been for AIG's involvement. The banks |
| clients in over 130 countries and its demise would have | | | | would never have made such huge profits and the |
| left us all uninsured if it had gone bust. Wrong! Few of | | | | supply of money would not have been so easy to |
| us actually understood the significance of this take | | | | obtain by everyone and the growth in the mortgage |
| over by the Federal Reserve Bank and its impact if | | | | market would have been controlled. Today the |
| the Federal Reserve Bank had not intervened. | | | | investment banks are now struggling as they have no |
| The Past Decade | | | | way of borrowing money as no one will insure their |
| What had happened over the past decade was that | | | | obligations any more since the collapse of Credit |
| the banks and investment banks had been bundling up | | | | Default Swaps or debt insurance contracts. |
| risky sub-prime mortgages that they had sold and then | | | | The Impact of AIG |
| selling these to investors or banks in Europe. To make | | | | The collapse of AIG has had a major impact on the |
| these mortgage investments more saleable they | | | | mortgage market and the banking system worldwide. |
| would purchase an AIG Credit Default Swaps or also | | | | It has added to the dire situation we all find ourselves in |
| known as debt insurance contracts. AIG's credit | | | | today with: |
| default swaps were insurance contracts which were | | | | A worldwide recession |
| not regulated. Typically these insurance policies were | | | | Unemployment rising |
| for three to five years. AIG did not have the capital | | | | Home repossessions rising |
| reserves required to back up these policies should | | | | Homeowners falling in to arrears with mortgage |
| they ever have to pay any claims out. This would | | | | payments |
| prove to be their downfall or their nemesis when their | | | | Falling house prices |
| day of reckoning arrived. | | | | Negative equity |
| AIG was not required to hold any capital in reserve as | | | | Mortgages that are hard to obtain |
| collateral on its credit default swaps as long as they | | | | Lack of confidence between banks when lending |
| maintained a triple-A credit rating. AIG made hundreds | | | | money to each other |
| of millions of dollars in 'profit' each year, without any | | | | Falling stock markets |
| collateral reserves. All the banks that purchased these | | | | Falling interest rates |
| credit default swaps were able to assure their national | | | | Government intervention to prop up the banking |
| regulators that they were holding only triple-A credits | | | | systems |
| mortgage products instead of the sub-prime | | | | Deflation on the horizon |
| mortgages that they were really holding which were | | | | Uncertainty in the financial markets. |
| high risk and toxic. | | | | The future for the next two to three years is gloomy |
| AIG's Day of Reckoning arrived | | | | at present. We need to hope that a consequence of |
| On the 15th September AIG's day of reckoning arrived | | | | all this spending by governments to ease this recession |
| when the major credit-rating agencies Standard & | | | | does not lead to high inflation in the future in order to |
| Poor's, Moody's and Fitch downgraded AIG's triple-A | | | | down value the overall debt that all the governments |
| credit status. The credit rating agencies had | | | | will have in the future. |